Ukrainian Southern Operational Command spokesperson Natalia Humenyuk stated that Russian shelling of Mykolaiv Oblast has become less intense because Russian forces are hesitant to go to the end of the Kinburn Spit to shell Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast and surrounding areas. [80], Belarusian maneuver elements continue conducting exercises in Belarus. By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider Russia has modern equipment such as drones, guided missiles, and technology as the USA. Russia at the moment, are depleting their older Soviet era Nicholas Slayton This is what the Russian military has done elsewhere, notably in Chechnya, when its officers feel frustrated. He holds a master's degree from Georgetown University and served with the Peace Corps in China. Russia remains keen to play down the war and provides little information about its victories or defeats, contributing to an incomplete picture. I mean, what mechanism of accountability is there? They are mercenaries. 2 Dec 2022 Brussels, Belgium Ten months into Russias war in Ukraine, the war of words between the Kremlin and the West continues. Skeptics like to point out Russia's gross-domestic product is in the same ballpark as Italy's. [73]The Ukrainian General Prosecutors Office reported on February 28 that Russian officials have forcibly removed 16,000 Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus and that Ukrainian officials have managed to return 307 of those children to Ukrainian-held territory. Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. It's true a significant chunk of Russia's army is made up of conscripts who are paid a pittance (2,000 rubles, ie. The small central European country now hosts thousands of NATO troops while allied aircraft patrol its skies, allowing Bratislava to consider becoming The force employment is completely irrational, preparations for a real war near nonexistent and morale incredibly low because troops were clearly not told they would be sent into this fight.. [39], Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 28. Its been this way for much of February. And the Western governments that have spoken openly about Russias military failings are eager to spread the word to help damage Russian morale and bolster the Ukrainians. Significant activity in Belarus(ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine in early 2023 is extraordinarily unlikely and has thus restructured this section of the update. [75]ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children may constitute a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. By 2014 and 2015, wars in Ukraine and Syria revealed Russia's integration of drone surveillance, precision-strike capabilities, and deniable private military companies as tools to wage war with fewer casualties to regular Russian forces. [60]A prominent Russian milblogger on February 28 amplified a report from a Russian soldier on December 9 that Russia has also fallen behind Ukrainian forces in terms of drone production and drone-operator training. [40]A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian naval infantry elements are fighting towards Vuhledar from the Mykliske dacha area and within Vuhledar itself, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of Russian troops within Vuhledar. Even if they dont, the officials say a frustrated Mr. Putin has the firepower to simply reduce Ukraine to rubble although he would be destroying the very prize he wants. [33]A Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops are attacking towards Bohdanivka in order to threaten the Khromove-Bakhmut route. Written By. ISW has not observed indicators that Russian forces are preparing to resume prolonged offensive activity in Zaporizhia Oblast or any offensive activity in Kherson Oblast. In part this is due to the valiant resistance of Ukraines army and civilian defense forces. : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. The resistance will continue, especially now that practically every nation in NATO is supplying Ukraine with weapons. Most Russian capabilities have been sitting on the sidelines, said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a defense research institute, in an email. Most of Russias initial attacks in Ukraine were relatively small, involving at most two or three battalions. The brutal tactics may eventually overwhelm Ukraines defenses, but they will almost certainly fuel a bloody insurgency that could bog down Russia for years, military analysts say. We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. Pretty outdated. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. MCFATE: I see last century's war happening in this century. This is just a strong supposition. Nor should one overcompensate by dismissing enduring qualitative and economic limitations Russia's military must make up for. ISW has previously reported on the correlation between Russian information operations and battlefield realities, particularly when Russian forces are failing to take significant ground in offensive operations in Ukraine. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of BTR-50 armored personnel carriers, which have been spotted in Russian-occupied territory. Get the latest in military news, entertainment and gear in your inbox daily. MARTIN: Who are these people? The barrage was the most intense attack He says that most never see T-90s or BTR-90, most of the army is sitting on old BTR-80s and T-72B3s. They created this fog of war and used it all these sneaky ways. Do the sources know the information? Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast), Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove on February 28. MCFATE: Basically, it's anything that doesn't look like World War II is sort of, like, what that means, or sneaky warfare. Fighting around the town has been ongoing since March 2022, but has been escalating since Jan. 24 when Russia launched a renewed offensive. Its a little bit early to draw any definitive lessons learned, he added. While procuring new aircraft, the VKS retired over a thousand Yet, in this invasion, Russian tanks are rolling all on their own or providing protection for reconnaissance scouts, but getting no protection for themselves. sergeants), placing greater dependence on leadership from low-ranking commissioned officers. For over a decade, Russia has undergone a great modernization of its military. The result is that Ukraine, using Javelin anti-tank missiles, has stalled the convoy headed for Kyiv by blowing up tank after tank. [12]These goals include regime change of the Ukrainian government under the rubric of denazification and the elimination of Ukraines ability to defend itself against future Russian attacks under the rubric of demilitarization.[13]Peskov also stated that Russia made serious preparations for security talks before launching the invasion of Ukraine but accused the West of being unreceptive to such talks. [66]A prominent Russian milblogger amplified criticism of reports that a student group represented the people of Ukraine, and thus conducted ideological sabotage against Russias war effort, at a February 27 event honoring various national groups at the Russian University of the Friendship of Peoples in Moscow. Putin lauded the FSB for its direct participation in the war in non-standard field tasks such as protection of the Russian border and cracking down on terrorist activities, organized crime, corruption, and extremism. To be sure, most military experts say that Russia will eventually subdue Ukraines army. Convoys of tanks are rolling inhowever slowlyfrom the north, west, and south. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. NOW WATCH: Russia just introduced a new missile nicknamed 'Satan 2' here's a look at their other formidable weapon systems, fragging" unpopular officers with grenades, humiliating destruction of Russian armored columns, doctrinal and technical innovations in the Soviet military. Its a bad army!. Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. Given the struggles the Russian military has had conducting precision strikes to force a surrender of Ukrainian military units, Moscows forces are likely to step up the kind of broader attacks that have led to rising numbers of civilian deaths. Its troops could plunder the places they conquer for fuel, food, and other supplies. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023, Karolina Hird, Riley Bailey, George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, Angela Howard, and Frederick W. Kagan. After four days of fighting, the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine. It's certainly horrifying. [72]The decision also imposes sanctions on seven Russian humanitarian and social movement organizations involved in various Russian schemes aiming to deport children. There are reasons to believe that the strength of the Russian armed forces has been overestimated. [27]Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the 254th Motorized Rifle Regiment (144th Motorized Rifle Division, 20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) fought near Kreminna. Thomas Bullock, an open source analyst from Janes, the defense intelligence firm, said Russian forces have made tactical errors that the Ukrainians have been able to capitalize on. Russian occupation officials continue efforts to use educational institutions to eradicate Ukrainian identity in occupied territories. In September, Putin also urged Russian defense companies to modernize and increase their production capacities, advising them to study how their equipment fares against Western weapons, per state-affiliated TV channel NTV. The authoritative record of NPRs programming is the audio record. Last modified on Mon 27 Feb 2023 15.47 EST. Regarding claims Russia lacks manpower due to a shrinking population, in fact only 5% of each yearly male cohort is conscripted, and the pool of available manpower is expected to increase for at least a decade. A Ukrainian official reported that Russian forces are vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast and may be preparing to withdraw from positions closer to the Dnipro River on the east (left) bank in Kherson Oblast. Russia has advanced fighter planes, a formidable navy and marines capable of multiple amphibious landings, as they proved early in the invasion when they launched from the Black Sea and headed toward the city of Mariupol. Using revised urban-warfare tactics, it methodically leveled Grozny then weathered nearly a decade of violent insurgency to crush surviving rebels. As a result, Wagner should be considered a proxy organization of the Russian state rather than a private company selling services on the And while the West was still scratching its head about what was really going on in eastern Ukraine, Crimea was a fait accompli. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. Despite heavy amounts of artillery, armor and drones, neither side has been able to break through the others lines. They need to be escorted by infantry troops alongside or by combat planes from above, to avoid getting ambushed. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. Stay up to date with what you want to know. [32]Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner forces are trying to advance on central Bakhmut from the north near the Stupky station and from positions on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a The tweet claims the tank was abandoned in good condition and fully-loaded. Satellite imagery taken on February 28 shows the first pictures of the A-50 since Belarusian partisans reportedly attacked it on February 26. Switchblade 300 Used to Target Russian Positions: There is an old idiom that you dont bring a knife to a gunfight meaning you should never enter a confrontation or Wagner Group-affiliated media outlet, posted footage on February 27 and 28 showing Wagner fighters walking around northern Bakhmut near the Stupky railway station and Sady Bakhmuta garden store, indicating that Wagner has advanced in northern Bakhmut. In addition, the Russian senior officers have proved so far to be risk-averse, the officials said. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war. Russia has paid special attention to the development of unmanned and autonomous military systems, which it has tested in combat in eastern Ukraine, Syria, and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. [51]https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 [52]https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 [53]https://meduza dot io/news/2023/02/28/v-erevane-zaderzhali-rossiyanina-podozrevaemogo-po-delu-ob-antivoennyh-nadpisyah-v-moskve; https://www.police dot am/ru/news/view/%D5%BE%D5%A1%D5%B6%D5%A4%D5%A1%D5%AC%D5%A B%D5%A6%D5%B4280223.html;https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32292266.html;https://www.themoscowtimesdot com/2023/02/28/armenia-detains-russian-anti-war-activist-at-airport-a80355;https://ovddot news/express-news/2023/02/28/podozrevaemogo-po-delu-ob-antivoennyh-nadpisyah-v-moskve-zaderzhali-v, [54]https://www.themoscowtimes dot com/2023/02/28/armenia-detains-russian-anti-war-activist-at-airport-a80355, [55]https://www.azatutyundot am/a/32292266.html. Not outdated at all. The avangard (hypersonic glide vehicle) is faster than any other aerial vehicle in the world (with a speed of Mach 20 to27). I Anyone can read what you share. [23]Another milblogger claimed that assault detachment elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) pushed Ukrainian forces out of unspecified high-ground positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line. All rights reserved. Some 154 helicopters, 19 aircraft, and 17 MLRSs have also reportedly been lost. I'm thinking about, like, the election interference that we saw here in the United States. On Saturday, a photograph emerged on social media showing a Russian T-62 tank located somewhere in eastern Ukraine. Videos show lead tanks getting disabled and the following tanks struggling to maneuver without meeting the same fate. And there will be lots of casualties. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. In the years immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian military Military operations designed to take place sequentiallyStep 1, then 2, then 3, etc.fell apart, catastrophically. Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service. Want to write for Task & Purpose? Absolutely hilarious to watch. And right now, they're going through the streets of Kyiv in plainclothes. We encountered an issue signing you up. And it appears to keep happening, with Russian forces unable to avoid the mines. Without achieving and sustaining momentum, the Russian forces got That has turned into a battle of attrition, with trench warfare and devastated no mans land straight out of World War I. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are defending in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts but are trying to create conditions that will allow Russian forces to conduct offensives in some unspecified areas of this part of the front. What are you thinking of? It's unlikely. Whats their motivation for telling us? Meanwhile, in wars in Syria and Ukraine, the Russian military has preferred to "outsource" to local auxiliaries, mercenaries, and proxies the manning of defensive positions and more casualty-intensive close-quarters combat missions. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of [16]Lukashenko also blamed the West and the US for coercing Ukrainian officials into rejecting negotiations with Russia. Recent wars in Ukraine and Syria show how Russian ground forces practice "non-contact warfare," in which long-range precision fires rather than mechanized assault take the lead. Russia's Army is primarily made up of poorly trained conscripts. The result: Militaries in Europe that once feared Russia say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. And though the Finns executed a masterful mobile defense against larger Soviet forces in 1939-1940 and 1944, Helsinki was still eventually forced to sue for peace and cede the Karelian Isthmus both times. While the shortcomings of Russia's one-year conscripts are real, they now constitute a large minority, not the majority of Russia's military. Send me updates about Slate special offers. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces may be preparing for offensive operations in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. Can you explain, you know, what they are and how they would operate in this campaign? But its also due to the fact that the Russian army just isnt very good. Russia will commit hara-kiri if it sends its tanks fitted with 1PN96MT-02 optical sights in the Ukraine War. The T-62 is a vintage tank fielded by the Russian Army since the initial months of the ongoing conflict. Russias War Time T-62 Tanks It'll be horrific. The use of that kind of force would expose not only the miscalculations the Kremlin made in launching a complex, three-sided invasion but also the limits of Russias military upgrades. The northeastern city of Kharkiv was expected to fall within hours of the invasion; it is battered by an onslaught of rocket fire and shelling, but still standing. At least a few didnt even know that they were in Ukrainethey thought they were still doing exercises in Belarus. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/readovkanews/53701;http https://t.me/ukrbavovna/6824;https://twitter.com/seanders_geo/status/1 https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630324113616297984?s=20, https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://t.me/readovkanews/53706, https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931, https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/sashakots/38685. [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. Despite having a huge advantage in armor when the war broke out, severe losses have weakened Russias forces. [48], Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian force concentrations and logistics in southern Ukraine. 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