Based on the House results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 1.7 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.6 seats. November 7: CA-22, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 move from Toss-up to Tilts R; CA-49, IN-01, NY-03 Leans to Tilts D; CT-05, NV-01 Tilts D to Toss-up; IL-08, WA-06 Safe to Likely D; ME-02, MN-02 Toss-up to Leans D; NY-22 Leans to Tilts R; OH-01 Toss-up to Leans R; TX-28 Tilts to Leans D; VA-02 Tilts to Leans R; WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up. This is the highest rate of congressional incumbents facing contested primaries since at least 2014 and is at least the fourth consecutive cycle where this rate has increased from the previous cycle. The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. Despite their extremely narrow majorities, the forecasts in Table 3 show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of keeping control of both chambers in the midterm elections if they maintain at least a narrow lead on the generic ballot. Incumbents filed to run in the newly created Florida's 28th and Texas' 27th Congressional Districts. Click here! See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. Alabama. 2022 Review: How Republicans Lost Despite Winning the Popular Vote There were several reasons Republicans struggled to translate votes into seats, including candidate quality and strength in the. When not including blank votes, Rice received 56% of the vote. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas Voters will decide Tuesday who they want to represent their party for Texas 27th Congressional District. You can also view these ratingsas a table. Six states were apportioned one U.S. House district, so no congressional redistricting was required. Arizona. Dear Readers: Listeners to our Politics is Everything podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. There are 26 seats rated as Toss Up races where neither party has a significant advantage. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. November 3:AK-AL moves from Tilts to Leans D; CA-13, IL-17, NY-17, RI-02, TX-34 Tilts D to Toss-up; CA-26, NY-25, PA-12 Safe to Likely D; CA-47, CA-49, IL-13, NY-04, OR-04 Leans to Tilts D; CO-08, IA-03, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Tilts R; CT-05 Leans D to Toss-up; FL-13 Likely to Leans R; NY-01 Tilts to Leans RRead the analysis ($) >. "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. This was more than in 2020 but fewer than at any other point in the preceding decade. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. Miles Coleman Posted November 7, 2022. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. The candidate of Labour Party, Thaddeus Attah, has been declared the winner of the Eti-Osa Federal Constituency seat in the House of Representatives. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. Taylor ran in the Republican primary on March 1, 2022, and advanced to the primary runoff. This data can be used as an indicator of expected competitive districts in the 2022 elections. For more information on our methodology, click here: In addition to the competitiveness data above, a race may be particularly compelling or meaningful to the balance of power in governments for other reasons. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. Click here to contact us for media inquiries, and please donate here to support our continued expansion. In this section, you will find a list of noteworthy and notable Republican and Democratic primaries taking place across the country for the U.S. House. The final 2022 House ratings from Cook Political Report. The map below shows how each 2022 U.S. House district would have voted in the 2020 presidential election. Toss-up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. Republicans 29 seats not up for election. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed HB172 into law, extending the filing deadline for partisan candidates from January 7, 2022, to January 25, 2022. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. Figure 1 displays a scatterplot of the relationship between the forecasts generated by the generic ballot model and the actual seat swing in House and Senate elections between 1946 and 2018. With ten days until the November 8 midterm elections, political forecasters and pollsters say Republicans appear to have a strong chance of retaking control of the House of Representatives.. This section does not include vacant seats filled by special election before November 8, 2022, unless no incumbents appeared on the regular primary ballot for that seat. Hover or click through to see the share of votes were forecasting for each candidate. Current House. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. Visit. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. The following map displays the 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. You deserve to hear our thinking. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. Because of the large impact of seat exposure in Senate elections, even a small advantage on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the upper chamber. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Of the 410 incumbents who ran for re-election, 247 (60.2%) faced contested primaries. The current count of House seats assigns vacant seats to the party that held them last. [53][54], The following table displays candidates who qualified as Young Guns for the 2022 election cycle. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. All 435 seats were up for election. Five of the chamber's six non-voting members were up for election as well. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country. See Other Commentary by Dr. Alan Abramowitz. However, our forecast does not take into account the specific seats that are on the ballot in 2022, only the numbers of Democratic and Republican seats. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. | Privacy Policy, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. The table below includes election results for districts that were open at the time the state held its congressional primary. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Ballotpedia defines wave elections as the 20 percent of elections where the president's party lost the most seats during the last 100 years (50 election cycles). Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. Nineteen races did not feature a Democratic candidate and 12 races did not feature a Republican candidate.[19]. -- Going solely by presidential partisanship, our moves in Alaska and South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races. Of controlling the House data is very clear from these figures those districts and incumbents are listed in table. 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